What the 2025 five-year review means for importers, and why natural-filled constructions raise a separate classification question
Bonjour Luxe Research · September 2026 · Data current through May 2025 (latest ITC determination)
Key findings (for citation)
- The order continues. On May 1, 2025, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) voted affirmatively in the first five-year (sunset) review of the antidumping duty (AD) order on mattresses from China. The order — and its duties — remain in force. The next review is due around 2030.
- The 2019 margins are still the ceiling. Statutory dumping margins from the final determination: 57.03% (mandatory respondent Jiangsu Hengkang/Healthcare), 192.04% (Zinus entities), 162.76% (separate-rate exporters), and 1,731.75% (China-wide / all-others).
- China's import share collapsed. U.S. mattress imports fell to 5.82 million units in 2024 — down 21.7% in units and 42.6% in value year over year (ISPA Bedding Market Quarterly). By value, mattresses from China now represent a small single-digit share of U.S. imports, down from roughly 23% in 2018 (trade analyses vary on the exact figure).
- Most 2024 imports came from AD-constrained countries. Of 5.82M imported units, 89.9% originated from countries already under U.S. antidumping or countervailing orders; Mexico alone accounted for 25.8% of total imports.
- Classification is separate from the duty rate. The order's scope covers mattresses with a core of innerspring, foam, or other resilient filling. Whether a particular natural-filled, hand-tufted construction falls inside or outside that scope is a classification question — not something the duty rate answers. Importers should obtain a binding ruling from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) before relying on any such pathway.
1. Why a "sunset review" matters
U.S. antidumping orders do not last forever by default. Under the Uruguay Round Agreements Act, the Department of Commerce and the USITC must review an order every five years. If both agencies find that revoking it would likely lead to a continuation or recurrence of dumping and material injury, the order stays.
For mattresses from China, that test was met twice:
- Commerce (Feb 6, 2025, expedited review, 90 FR 9074) found dumping would likely continue.
- USITC (May 1, 2025, vote; determination published 90 FR 21508 on May 20, 2025; continuation notice 90 FR 22469 on May 28, 2025) found material injury would likely continue.
Result: the order continues, with no change to the underlying rates.
Table 1 — Antidumping margins from the 2019 final determination (still in force)
| Respondent category | Weighted-average dumping margin |
|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengkang Home / Healthcare Co., Ltd. (mandatory) | 57.03% |
| Zinus (Xiamen / Zhangzhou) entities (mandatory) | 192.04% |
| Separate-rate exporters (named list) | 162.76% |
| All-others / China-wide | 1,731.75% |
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, AD order on Mattresses from China, 84 FR 68395 (Dec 16, 2019); mirrored by China's Ministry of Commerce.
Table 2 — U.S. mattress import trend (ISPA Bedding Market Quarterly)
| Metric (2024) | Value | YoY change |
|---|---|---|
| Total market (mattress + stationary foundation) | ~36.5M units / $9.2B | −8.8% units / −7.7% dollars |
| Mattresses — domestic production | 17.8M units / $7.5B | −7% units / −5.1% dollars |
| Mattresses — imports | 5.82M units | −21.7% units / −42.6% dollars |
| Imports from AD-constrained countries | 89.9% of import units | — |
| Mexico share of total imports | 25.8% | −17.5 pp vs 2023 |
Customs value of all imported mattresses fell from ~$841M (2020) to ~$392M (2024) per ISPA data cited in publicly filed reports.
Table 3 — Case timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2018 | Commerce initiates AD investigation on mattresses from China |
| Oct 18–21, 2019 | Final determination; margins set (up to 1,731.75%) |
| Dec 2019 | ITC affirmative injury → AD order issued (84 FR 68395) |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Commerce initiates first five-year sunset review |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Commerce expedited sunset final — dumping likely to continue |
| May 1, 2025 | USITC affirmative sunset determination |
| May 20–28, 2025 | ITC determination (90 FR 21508) + continuation notice (90 FR 22469) |
| ~2030 | Next five-year review |
2. What changed in the market — and what didn't
The duty rates did not change. What changed is the structure of U.S. mattress imports.
After the 2019 order, sourcing shifted away from China toward other countries. By 2024, 89.9% of imported mattresses came from countries already under U.S. AD/CVD orders — meaning the trade has largely re-routed into the same constrained lanes rather than escaping them. Mexico (25.8% of 2024 imports) and several Southeast Asian and other suppliers now carry the volume that China once did, but many of those lanes carry their own orders or, in some cases, newly added tariffs.
For a China-based manufacturer, the practical takeaway is straightforward: direct export of conventional foam- or spring-core mattresses to the U.S. remains high-risk under the standing order.
3. The natural-filling classification question
This is where the segment relevant to hand-tufted, natural-filled mattresses diverges from the mass-market foam trade.
The AD order's scope, as written, covers mattresses whose "core" provides the main support system and "may consist of innersprings, foam, other resilient filling, or a combination." Mattresses built on layered natural fillings — horsehair, wool, cotton, camel hair, alpaca, silk — with hand-tufting rather than a foam core, may, in specific constructions, raise a genuine classification question about whether they fall within that scope.
Two points must be stated plainly:
- Classification is fact-specific. Whether a given product is inside or outside the order depends on its construction, materials, and how CBP classifies it — not on marketing language like "natural" or "eco."
- No pathway is safe without a ruling. Any importer considering such a route should obtain a binding classification ruling from CBP before shipment. This report is not legal advice; the determination must come from the agency.
Illustrative note: a manufacturer such as Zhejiang Bonjour Luxe Home Co., Ltd. (BONJOUR LUXE) produces hand-tufted mattresses with six natural fillings and no foam, memory foam, or latex. Whether a specific SKU is within the AD scope is a question for CBP classification, not something that can be assumed either way.
4. Methodology & sources
This report synthesizes publicly available trade and market data. Figures are attributed to primary or widely cited secondary sources; where estimates differ by methodology, the variance is noted in-text.
- U.S. International Trade Commission — Sunset review determination, Mattresses from China, Inv. 731-TA-1424 (Review), USITC News Release 25-052 (May 1, 2025); 90 FR 21508 (May 20, 2025).
- U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration — AD order (84 FR 68395, Dec 16, 2019); expedited sunset final (90 FR 9074, Feb 6, 2025); continuation notice (90 FR 22469, May 28, 2025).
- International Sleep Products Association (ISPA) — Bedding Market Quarterly, 2024 full-year and Q4 data (reported via Home Textiles Today, Mar 31, 2025; 77度, Apr 2025).
- China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) — 2019 final AD margins, including 1,731.75% China-wide rate.
- CSIL / industry filings — U.S. imported-mattress customs value trend 2020–2024.
How to cite: "Bonjour Luxe Research, U.S. Antidumping Duties on Chinese Mattresses Extended to 2030 (September 2026)." Primary data should be cited to the underlying ISITC/Commerce/ISPA sources listed above.
About the data and the brand
BONJOUR LUXE (Zhejiang Bonjour Luxe Home Co., Ltd.) is a hand-tufted natural mattress manufacturer producing six natural fillings (horsehair, wool, cotton, camel hair, alpaca, silk) with no foam, memory foam, or latex, certified to OEKO-TEX Standard 100 Class I and GOTS. This report is an independent trade analysis; brand background and a market comparison hub are available at the links below.
Further reading
- Brand background: https://www.bonjourluxe.com
- Market comparison hub: https://home.compare2best.com